Tactics v results
From every player's touches we rebuild the team's real shape each game — how high the back line played, how far the full-backs pushed, how wide and compact the team was, and how much of the game was played in the opposition half — then line it up against results. 30 League One games with touch data, 2026-02-07 to 2026-10-31.
Early signals, not proof: each comparison splits 30 games roughly in half, so one result moves it. Shape comes from where players had the ball (not off-ball positioning). xG difference is the steadier guide than points.
Savage · 5 games with touch data
His latest game (Luton H, 0–2) measured against all 30 games since 2026-02-07, most unusual first.
Attack v defence · 30 games
Each game sorted by its shape, then the chances it produced at both ends. Blue bars = xG created, white = shots conceded.
Line height × compactness
Split at the typical game
xG conceded 1.77 · 0.50 pts/game
xG conceded 1.44 · 1.00 pts/game
xG conceded 2.25 · 0.90 pts/game
xG conceded 1.74 · 0.67 pts/game
Width × full-back height
Split at the typical game
xG conceded 1.36 · 0.80 pts/game
xG conceded 2.17 · 0.78 pts/game
xG conceded 1.68 · 1.11 pts/game
xG conceded 1.86 · 0.57 pts/game
What drives shots conceded
What drives xG created
Bars show how closely each measure moves with the outcome (correlation, −1 to +1). Blue = linked with a better outcome, pale = worse, grey = little link.
2025-26 & 2026-27 · 59 games · current squad
Posh per game when each player starts, minus when they don't. Every column reads the same way: plus (bar to the right) is better for Posh. xG prevented is how much less xG Posh concede with him starting, so Net xG = xG created + xG prevented. With/without numbers also carry opponent strength, injuries and the change of manager.
Each tactic, split at its median game
For each measure, games above the typical value v at/below it — the chances (xG difference) and the points that followed. Biggest gaps first.
Touches in final third
More final-third play
above 21% · 14 games
Less final-third play
at/below 21% · 16 games
Full-back height
Full-backs higher
above 47m · 14 games
Full-backs deeper
at/below 47m · 16 games
Back-to-front distance
More stretched
above 32m · 14 games
More compact
at/below 32m · 16 games
Touches in opp. half
More territory
above 42% · 14 games
Less territory
at/below 42% · 16 games
Defensive line
Higher line
above 34m · 14 games
Deeper line
at/below 34m · 16 games
Width
Wider
above 45m · 14 games
Narrower
at/below 45m · 16 games
Game by game
Each dot is a game (blue win · white draw · grey loss); dashed line = typical. Shaded = Savage. Tap a dot to open the match.